Okay, so I’ve been trying to get better at predicting basketball game outcomes. It’s tough, you know? There are so many variables. But I decided to focus on Ohio basketball predictions for a while, just to narrow things down and see if I could improve my accuracy.
First, I started by just watching a ton of games. High school, college, even some pro games when the Cavs were playing. I figured the more I watched, the better I’d get at spotting patterns, you know, like which teams were strong on defense, which players were clutch, that sort of thing.
Then, I dug into the stats. I mean, really dug. I found some websites that had all kinds of data – points per game, rebounds, assists, turnovers, shooting percentages… you name it. It was overwhelming at first, honestly, like trying to drink from a fire hose.
My process
My next move was to try and organize all this information. I made spreadsheets. Lots of spreadsheets. Color-coded and everything. I felt like a mad scientist, but it helped me to see the numbers in a clear way.
- One sheet was team stats.
- Another was player stats.
- Another was head-to-head matchups.
After that, I started experimenting with some simple formulas. Nothing fancy, just basic stuff like comparing average points scored and allowed, looking at recent win/loss streaks, and factoring in home-court advantage. I plugged the numbers into my spreadsheets and saw what kind of predictions popped out.
Of course, I tested my predictions. I didn’t bet any money or anything, but I kept track of how often I was right and wrong. Some weeks were good, some weeks were… not so good. It was a humbling experience, let me tell you.
I also realized that stats weren’t everything. I started paying more attention to things like injuries, team morale, and even coaching changes. Those “intangibles” can make a big difference, and they’re not always reflected in the numbers.
I made some adjustments. I tweaked my formulas, I added some new data points, and I kept watching games. I started doing this process and it was a slow and steady improvement. I’m still no expert, but I’m definitely getting better. It’s a fun challenge, and it makes watching the games even more interesting.
