Okay, so I decided to take a crack at figuring out some projections for Cooper Kupp this season. It’s something I do for fun, trying to see how guys might perform.
Getting Started: The Info Hunt
First thing I did was just gather up a bunch of stuff on Kupp. You know, the usual suspects:
- Past performance: Pulled up his stats from the last few seasons. Especially that monster 2021 season, but also looking at games he played with Stafford and games without. Gotta see the patterns, right?
- Team situation: Looked at the Rams offense. Who else is catching passes? Is Puka Nacua still gonna demand a huge target share? What’s the offensive line look like? Is Stafford healthy? These things matter, big time.
- Injury history: Kupp’s had some injuries, especially that ankle thing. Had to check the latest news, see if he’s fully recovered, any lingering concerns. You can’t project stats if the guy isn’t on the field.
- Coaching stuff: Any changes in McVay’s offensive philosophy? Sometimes coaches tweak things year to year. Tried to find any offseason reports or interviews hinting at Kupp’s role.
Sorting Through the Mess
Okay, so now I had a pile of information. The next step was making sense of it. I basically spread it all out, mentally speaking. I started thinking about what factors were most important.
Key things that stood out:
- When healthy and with Stafford, Kupp is just a target machine. That’s undeniable.
- Puka Nacua’s emergence is real. He’s not just going away. Targets will be split more than in Kupp’s huge year.
- Health is the biggest question mark. If he misses time, obviously, the projection tanks.
Making the Actual Projections (The Guesswork Part)
This is where it gets less scientific and more gut feeling, based on the info.
I started thinking game-by-game, roughly. Like, okay, assuming he plays a full season (big assumption, I know), what’s a reasonable target number per game? Maybe not the insane numbers from 2021, but still high. I penciled in a number.
Then, catches. Kupp catches a high percentage of his targets. So, I applied a catch rate to my target estimate. Felt pretty straightforward.
Yards per catch came next. Looked at his career averages, considering Stafford’s arm and the types of routes he runs. Slotted in a number there.
Touchdowns are the hardest. They can be fluky. I looked at his red zone usage in the past and the Rams’ overall offensive potential. Made a guess, probably a bit conservative.
Refining and Final Thoughts
After getting initial numbers for catches, yards, and TDs, I looked at the totals. Did they feel right? Too high? Too low compared to other top receivers?
I tweaked things a bit. Maybe nudged the targets down slightly because of Nacua, adjusted the TD total based on gut feel. It’s not an exact science, more like painting a picture. You step back, look, add a dab here, smudge a bit there.
So, I ended up with a range, really. A sort of baseline projection if he stays healthy, considering the team context. It’s not gospel, just my own little exercise based on digging through the info and thinking it through. We’ll see how close (or far off) I end up being! It’s always interesting to look back at the end of the season.
