Alright, let’s talk about this whole ‘no pelicans prediction’ thing I went through. It sounds kinda funny now, but man, I got way too deep into it for a while there.

It started last year. Things got shaken up at my old job, and suddenly I had a lot of time on my hands. Found myself spending hours down at the local marsh, just watching birds, trying to clear my head. Then I got fixated on the pelicans. They only show up sometimes, these big, kinda goofy-looking birds, and I got this idea in my head that I could figure out exactly when they’d arrive.
My Grand Plan
So, I started getting serious. Like, really serious for just watching birds.
- I bought decent binoculars.
- I got a notebook and started logging everything: times I went, weather, wind direction, what other birds were around.
- I dug up old sighting reports online, trying to find a pattern.
I felt like I was some kinda detective, you know? Cracking the pelican code. Spent weeks on this, convinced I had it figured out. Developed this whole theory, pinpointed a specific weekend.
The Big Weekend
I got pretty confident. Maybe a little too confident. I remember telling my buddy Dave, “Mark my words, pelicans, next Saturday.” We even made a silly little bet, like ten bucks or something. I was that sure.
So, Saturday comes. I drag my partner out there super early. We set up camp chairs, thermos of coffee, the whole deal. Ready for the big arrival. We waited. And waited. Saw plenty of ducks. Some nice herons. But no pelicans.

Okay, maybe Sunday, I thought. My prediction allowed for a little wiggle room, right? Went back Sunday. More waiting. Still nothing. Just the usual crowd. My partner was trying to be supportive but was definitely checking the phone a lot by lunchtime. Dave texted asking if he was ten bucks richer. Yeah, he was.
What Happened Next
Honestly? I felt like a complete idiot. It wasn’t really about the ten bucks. It was just… I’d put so much energy into this prediction. It was supposed to be this little victory, something I could control and get right when other things felt outta control. And it just completely flopped. That notebook? Yeah, I shoved it in a drawer somewhere and haven’t looked at it since.
It kinda burst my bubble. Made me realize how unpredictable things are, especially nature. You can’t just force patterns onto everything. Maybe it was a bit of a lesson I needed after the job stuff too – trying to map everything out perfectly doesn’t always work.
Funny thing is, about a month later, I was just walking past the marsh on a whim, no binoculars, no notebook, not expecting anything. And wouldn’t you know it? A single pelican flew right overhead. Didn’t see that one coming.