Getting Started with Homer Picks
So, I started fiddling with these home run bets a while back. Wasn’t anything serious, you know? Just saw folks talking about it, seemed like a fun little side action while watching the games. Baseball can drag sometimes, let’s be honest, and picking a guy to go yard added some juice.
My first few attempts? Man, it was pure guesswork. I’d just pick the big names, guys everyone knows. You know, the Judge’s, the Ohtani’s, the Alonso’s. Sometimes it hit, felt like a genius. Most times, it didn’t. Lost a few bucks, nothing crazy, but enough to make me think, “Okay, maybe there’s more to this than just picking superstars.”
Trying to Get a Little Smarter
I wasn’t about to dive into spreadsheets or anything nuts. That’s not me. But I did start looking at a few basic things. Like, okay, who’s pitching? Is this pitcher known for giving up bombs? Does the hitter actually hit well against this specific pitcher? Stuff like that. Simple stuff you can find pretty easily.
I also started paying attention to where the game was being played. Some parks are just launching pads, right? Coors Field, Great American Ball Park… you hear about those places. Then you got parks where the ball goes to die. So, I started factoring that in a little bit.
My “process,” if you can even call it that, looked something like this:
- Check who’s playing and who’s pitching.
- See if any hitters have good history against the pitcher.
- Look at the ballpark – is it hitter-friendly?
- Maybe check if the hitter’s been hot lately.
- Pick a guy, maybe two. Place a small bet.
Honestly, it’s still mostly a crapshoot. You can look at all that stuff, and then some random dude you’ve barely heard of smacks one out, and your star player goes 0-for-4.
That One Time…
I remember this one game vividly. Picked some mid-level guy, can’t even recall his name now. Odds were decent, not crazy high. He was facing a pitcher he’d homered off before, in a hitter-friendly park. Felt like a solid, researched pick, you know? Game goes on, bottom of the eighth, my guy comes up. Two outs, nobody on. Works the count full. Takes a huge swing… foul tip, strike three. Argh! Then, next inning, the pitcher gets pulled, and some reliever comes in and gives up three homers, none to my guy. That’s baseball betting for ya. Drives you nuts, but you still come back.
Keeping it Real
Nowadays, I still place a home run bet here and there. It’s fun. It gives me a reason to pay closer attention to specific at-bats. But I learned pretty quick not to expect to get rich off it. It’s entertainment money, like buying a beer at the ballpark. You enjoy the experience, and if you happen to win, great. If not, well, hopefully the game was good anyway.
It’s just a way to add a little personal stake, a bit more excitement. Don’t treat it like a job or an investment. Just enjoy the long ball when it happens, especially if it’s your guy hitting it.
