Okay, so I’ve been trying to get better at predicting football results, specifically for Nottingham Forest. It’s a tough one, but I wanted to see if I could use some basic data to at least make slightly more educated guesses than just flipping a coin.
I started by, you know, just watching the games. That’s the obvious first step, right? You gotta get a feel for how the team is playing, who’s in form, who’s injured, and all that stuff. I kept a little notebook and jotted down some notes after each match.
Gathering some basic stats
Next, I figured I needed some actual numbers. So I went online and found some websites with basic stats like recent match results, goals scored, goals conceded, and maybe the opponent’s strength. Nothing too fancy, just the basic stuff.
- Wins/Losses/Draws: Pretty straightforward. I just looked at Forest’s last 5-10 games.
- Goals For/Against: How many goals are they scoring on average? How many are they letting in?
- Home vs. Away: Do they perform significantly better at the City Ground than on the road? Many teams do!
I created a super simple table on the paper to store and keep tracking the team’s performance.
My “highly sophisticated” prediction method
Now, I’m no data scientist, so my “method” is pretty basic. Here’s what I did:
- I looked at the recent form. If Forest had won their last three games, I’d give them a bit of a boost in my prediction. If they’d lost three in a row, well, that’s not a good sign.
- I checked the goals. If they were scoring a lot and not conceding many, that’s obviously good. The opposite, not so much.
- I factored in the home/away thing. I just gave them a slight edge if they were playing at home.
- Consider the opponent.
Then, I basically just used my gut feeling, informed by this data. I’d say something like, “Okay, they’ve been playing okay, scoring a few goals, but they’re away from home. I think it’ll be a draw.” Or, “They’re on a winning streak, playing at home, and scoring loads… I’m going for a Forest win!”
Results?
Honestly, it’s been hit and miss! I haven’t suddenly become a prediction wizard. But I do feel like I’m making slightly more informed guesses. It’s definitely more fun than just randomly picking a result. It’s a work in progress, and I’m still tweaking my “system” (if you can even call it that!). But it’s been a fun little project, and it makes watching the games even more engaging.
It gave me a primary view of how I predict the game, and I might make a adjustment for the prediction in next game. I am looking forward to improve my “system”.
